US election result 2016: Trump or Clinton? Chances of victory estimated in final projection
US election result 2016: Trump or Clinton? Chances of victory estimated in final projection

US election result 2016: Trump or Clinton? Chances of victory estimated in final projection

The 2016 US election takes place today, after which the world’s most powerful nation will have a new leader. Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will become the 45th President of the United States.

During that time, around 120 million Americans will cast their votes. This year is also the first time new voting laws will come into place in 14 states.

Here is when we can expect the results to be announced.

When will the US election results be announced?

5.01am November 8 (00.01 ET) – The first results will be announced in Dixville Notch in New Hampshire. The results are usually announced here, sometimes 24 hours before the rest of the country, first due to the small village just 20 miles south of the Canadian border only having so few residents.The village has a tradition of voting in the middle of the night to ensure an early result, gathering in the ballroom of a ski resort before other polls even open to announce the result. New Hampshire is also expected to declare shortly after too.

11am November 8 (6am ET) – Majority of polls open. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be seen casting their votes shortly after this in New York. Polling gets under way.

Midnight November 8 (7pm ET) – Polls begin to close with predictions made based on exit polls. Results will be released state by state from this time onward throughout the evening/morning.

4am November 9 (11pm ET Nov 8) – This is the earliest time the likely result can be predicted. The result could come any time from this point on with speeches from Clinton and Trump.

Swing states – the key states to watch will be Nevada (6 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Colorado (9 votes), Iowa (6 votes), Ohio (18 votes), Florida (29 votes), North Carolina (15 votes), Virginia (13 votes), Pennsylvania (20 votes) and New Hampshire (4 votes).

Swing states, much like swing seats in the UK, give a good indication of how a party is doing and can be crucial in the final outcome. In 2000 Florida played a decisive role when George W. Bush beat Al Gore by just 500 votes out of 5.8 million to claim all its electoral college votes.

The key states to look out for include Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Georgia.
Securing all of those would provide the winner with 69 electoral college votes and the Democrats have the edge in the first three, while the Republicans look set to win Georgia and its 16 votes.

Typically Democrat states – California (55 votes), Oregon (7 votes), Hawaii (4 votes), Washington (12 votes), New Mexico (5 votes), Minnesota (10 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), Illinois (20 votes), Michigan (16 votes), New York (29 votes), Vermont (3 votes), Maine (4 votes), Massachusetts (11 votes), Connecticut (7 votes), New Jersey (14 votes), Delaware (3 votes), Maryland (10 votes), District of Columbia (3 votes) and Rhode Island (4 votes).

Typically Republican states – Alaska (3 votes), Utah (6 votes), Idaho (4 votes), Montana (3 votes), Wyoming (3 votes), North Dakota (3 votes), South Dakota (3 votes), Nebraska (5 votes), Kansas (6 votes), Oklahoma (7 votes), Indiana (11 votes), Texas (38 votes), Louisiana (8 votes), Arkansas (6 votes), Missouri (10 votes), Mississippi (6 votes), Alabama (9 votes), Georgia (16 votes), South Carolina (9 votes), Tennessee (11 votes), Kentucky (8 votes) and West Virginia (5 votes).

When will we know the result?

The first burst of results will emerge when polls close at 7pm in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Look for more big blasts of numbers just after 8pm (1am) and 9pm (2pm), when polls close in a combined 30 states and the District of Columbia. The 11pm (4am) batch of states includes California, with 55 electoral votes. Alaska, where polls close at 1am (6am) on Wednesday, brings up the rear.


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